Here's a little breakdown on the two games, and my prediction of how this Final Four will play out.
Michigan State vs. UConn: This may not look like an intriguing battle on paper, but if you have watched Michigan State play this season, you know what they're capable of. The Spartans completely took Louisville out of their own game plan in the Elite Eight, and made the Cardinals play Big Ten basketball. That's what this team is good at. They know they're not going to match up size-wise with UConn, so their shooting will have to be lights out. However, they are playing close to home, so that has to be taken in to consideration.
On the other end, UConn has played arguably the best basketball in the tournament so far, and it would be a belated April Fools joke to say they weren't the favorite in this one. Hasheem Thabeet is the most dominating defensive presence in the Final Four, and Michigan State has absolutely no answer for him. Goran Suton is not nearly as athletic as Thabeet, and will have a very tough time against him. Also, Jeff Adrien and Stanley Robinson have come up huge since Jerome Dyson's injury took him out of play for the remainder of the season.
The story in this game is going to be how much can Michigan State contain Jeff Adrien and Stanley Robinson down low, and how many three's and open jump shots can Kalin Lucas, Durrell Summers, and Chris Allen hit. The Spartans are going to try force UConn to shoot outside, because A.J. Price is their only real three-point threat.
However, in this one I have to give the edge to UConn. They're just playing too well right now, and Michigan State is still a young team.
Villanova vs. North Carolina: After getting blown out last year in the Final Four by Kansas, UNC has one mission: Win a National Championship. Tyler Hansbrough has basically done everything else a college basketball player can do, except win a national title.
With him comes arguably one of the best teams ever assembled at North Carolina. Ty Lawson has been nothing short of magnificent this whole season, and has been playing as well as anyone after coming off of his injury. Danny Green and Wayne Ellington come in to the game shooting the ball well and been playing great defense. Freshmen Ed Davis Davis compliment Hansbrough inside very well, along with Dion Thompson.
Villanova is no cupcake, though. Head coach Jay Wright has this team playing their best ball of the season at the right time. Scottie Reynolds' game winner over Pittsburgh in the Elite Eight is one of the iconic memories of this years tournament, and gave the Wildcats their first Final Four berth since 1985.
Reynolds is definitely a great guard, but Dante Cunningham and Corey Fisher are also outstanding players. Cunningam is the leading scorer on the team, but is really their only big presence inside.
The match-up everyone will have their eyes on in this one is without question Ty Lawson vs. Scottie Reynolds. However, aside from that, I don't really see Villanova matching up well with anyone on North Carolina's team. The Tar Heels are simply too good, and score too easily and efficiently for Villanova to stop them. They're a much deeper team, and have tremendous contribution from their bench, so I see North Carolina moving on in this one to face UConn in the Championship game.
Good analysis. I'm cheering for Michigan State.
ReplyDeleteI wanted them to win too. I'm definitely glad they did, I just thought UConn was too big for them.
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